Future Diffusion of PK1-Technology - A German Delphi Study

This article provides a contribution to innovation research in the field of electronic signatures, particularly to the future development of the aspects of diffusion throughout the IT-technology of the "Public Key Infrastructure" (PKI). In the modern Internet economy, PKI-technology is generally seen as the basis for obligatory authentication and safe communication. Nowadays, large scale enterprises in particular want to reach concensus concerning this security technology. In this article, the key factors for the future development of PKI are examined. The key factors will then be transferred into a diffusion model consisting of the primary PKI services, the secondary technologies, the process level, the user populations and the markets. Different qualities of a PKI will be distinguished. The qualified electronic signature, according to the German Electronic Signature Act (SigG), is also taken into account. With the results of a Delphi study by 69 experts, the PKI diffusion model will be filled and calibrated with real data. The study's board of participants consists of users, suppliers and scientists in the field of PKI. All participants are designated experts in their field and worked through the Delphi questionnaire twice, thereby judging, commenting and replenishing the study.